RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Forecasting the Yield Curve Shape JF The Journal of Fixed Income FD Institutional Investor Journals SP 92 OP 99 DO 10.3905/jfi.1999.319234 VO 9 IS 1 A1 Charles p. Dolan YR 1999 UL https://pm-research.com/content/9/1/92.abstract AB Investment managers are interested in models of the yield curve into which expectations can be embedded so as to direct investments. The yield curve shape model advocated here can be used to predict changes in curvature of the forward curve centered at three years' maturity. A mean reversion forecast is evaluated across a number of global fixed-income markets. The curvature parameter is shown to correlate closely with the curvature in the spot at four years.