It appears that speculative asset prices tend to show excess volatility relative to simple
present value efficient markets models, and that prices are partly forecastable as tending to …

I will start this lecture with some general thoughts on the determinants of long-term asset
prices such as stock prices or home prices: what, ultimately, drives these prices to change as …

… Yale University Professor Robert Shiller pretty much called the stock market … Shiller describes
the psychological origins of volatility, among other things. And in the newest edition, Shiller …

… Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the
… Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and …

The key idea of rational expectations models is to assume that people know (or behave as if
they know) the true model that describes the economy. However, popular economic models (…

A simple model that is commonly used to interpret movements in corporate common stock.
price indexes asserts that real stock prices equal the present value of rationally expected or …

Recent literature in empirical finance is surveyed in its relation to underlying behavioral
principles, principles which come primarily from psychology, sociology, and anthropology. The …

… In this trenchant book, best-selling economist Robert Shiller reveals … Shiller blames the
subprime crisis on the irrational … To restore confidence in the markets, Shiller argues, bailouts are …

Publisher Summary The term structure of interest rates at any time is the function relating
interest rate to term. The study of the term structure inquires what market forces are responsible …

Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price–earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, has served as one of
the best forecasting models for long-term future stock returns. But recent forecasts of future …